Luckily, there are various areas in which we can find leaks in our opponents’ game. One of these is the capped ranges, which are sometimes very obvious and very profitable to attack. If you want to increase your redline and winnings, continue reading to find out what spots and what type of players to look for!
What is missing from your opponent’s range?
When we talk about capped ranges, we refer to a range that lacks (sometimes completely) strong hands. This is due to the betting sequence and what certain hands are supposed to do. Does this mean that any Villain in any situation will be capped when we assume they would be? Of course not, but we can rely on this assumption against reasonable players until we see proof of the opposite.
Examples of capped ranges can be found on any street we play, from preflop to river. When BB calls a BTN 2,5bb open, she caps her range to a certain extent because her range will lack at least high pairs and strong broadways combos like AKs since she would 3-bet these holdings.
When BB calls a 1/3 c-bet from BTN on 9♠️s8♠️4♦️, she caps her range to a great extent since all sets and strong two pairs like 98s are highly incentivized to build the pot and go for value. Again, this doesn’t mean that there should be no slowplaying at all in theory, but in most cases raising these types of hands is higher EV. What we can notice is that playerpool follows this argument (or any other reasoning that coincides).
In which spots do players cap their ranges most often?
Usually, players lack strong hands when they check IP, either as the PFR or the caller. Poker players intuitively tend to bet their strongest hands because the urgency of building the pot is higher in position than out of position. There are only a few exceptions when slowplaying in position is viable; it could be a solid exploitative reason, low stack-to-pot ratio on dry boards or with strong but not nutted hands as the caller, on textures where the preflop aggressor is supposed to check a lot. Inexperienced players are terrible with the last one, so we can conclude that they will not have strong hands in their checkback ranges.
Checking multiple times, when the flop goes check-check, not probing the turn, or after that, not probing the river either. These ranges are often capped as most players overrate the protection factor of their hand, omitting the possibility of getting bluffed into or simply that there could be stronger hands in flop-checking ranges from their opponents. This often leads to betting top pair and draws but checking most hands with no SD value, ace-highs (some of that they should check indeed), and mediocre one-pair type hands.
After double barrelling on the turn and checking the river. Just look up your average opponent’s check-fold river stat, and you’ll see high numbers (sometimes even 75-80%). The reason is two-fold here, mainly betting too wide ranges on the turn with mediocre hands (or too many bluffs) that have no incentive to bet again on the river. The other reason is not reading the board texture and failing to hand-read what Villain could have. This leads to mainly betting strong value hands and leaving the check range unprotected. There are many cases for exploitative reasons that this is not a big deal, but in theory, against aggressive (and/or) good opponents, it will be a losing play to leave that river check range capped.
After check-calling, small c-bets OOP. As mentioned earlier, so in a standard 100bb scenario, we are urged to raise our strongest value on most flops. This is even more true when the average opponent lacks the necessary aggression and bluffs on later streets. Facing small bets also gives room and urgency to increase the pot.
How does Villains capping their ranges affect our strategy?
The lack of raises IP and OOP means fewer bluffs and less thin value, which eventually boosts the EV of our value bets. We won’t be bluffed or put into a tough spot with our thin value bets. At the same time, Villain’s range is weaker than it is „supposed to be” in theory. Therefore, she must find bluff-catching hands from this weak range when most of this weakened range should fold to the betting sequence faced.
So we’ll have more thin-value opportunities, with possible bigger bet sizes. Villain’s weaker calling range increases the EV of our marginal value hands, and using bigger sizes makes them even more profitable. The lack of solid hands means fewer raises to face with, which increases the EV of mediocre hands. Those that usually would be too thin to bet for value become profitable value bets while we don’t have to worry too much about getting raised and forced out of the pot.
On the other hand, bluffing also becomes more profitable. Villain has to defend with a weaker range since her range is not protected by a strong hand. She will fold more often (at least on rivers). Marginal bluff-catching spots are often difficult, and most inexperienced players shy away from them.
What to look for when profiling your opponents?
Of course, weaker players will cap their ranges more often in these spots, so you should look for passive, weak regulars and recreational players to attack them.
Please look at the stats together; they belong together, and extremities could mean very different things. However, we’ll provide a list of the most apparent statistics that could indicate that your opponent is weak and passive, consequently having capped ranges in the spots mentioned above.
Look for weak opponents with low ’went to showdown’ (wtsd) stats. However, only looking at this statistic could be misleading. If it’s combined with high aggression frequencies (afq), you are not facing a passive opponent. So, the aggression has to be low as well, combined with low wtsd. If your opponent has a wtsd of 29 or lower, combined with an afq of 33 or lower, you are on the right path.
’Fold to c-bet’ stats help you to identify which street(s) your opponent overfolds to bets. Of course, you must look at multiple other stats, such as if she is altering her preflop ranges, how much raise is combined with the folds per street, etc. If a player is weak, you’ll notice a high fold to c-bet in one (or multiple) of streets. Usually, a number over 45 is a good indicator, but for players who often cap their ranges, it will be even higher than 60.
Surprisingly, the ’won at showdown’ (w$SD) stat shows how often someone wins the pot at showdown. The higher this number is, the more likely someone goes to SD with solid hands. Above 53, likely, a player is not competitive enough and gives up bluffs on early streets, and bluff catches with a stronger range than GTO would suggest. Looking at this number alone, you cannot conclude 100%, but a player with high wtsd will most likely be passive and with a low wtsd (under 48) will be an active player capable of bluffing, even overbluffing certain spots. So, look for the one with a higher wtsd statistic for capped ranges.
Summary
Of course, the situations listed above are not all the spots of capping ranges. There are more subtle and advanced ones. First, master the most obvious spots: check back ranges, call small c-bets out of position, bet-bet-check out of positions line, etc. Then, you can look for the more complex spots. Once you understand the dynamic of how capped ranges affect your strategy, you can take advantage of your opponents by putting a lot of pressure on them. Both by bluffing them of their weak hands and value betting thinly against the same weak hands. Try to profile your opponents by looking at their stats as a whole. Picking out one particular aspect might be misleading, but combining the relevant stats lets you notice which opponents are more likely to cap their ranges and are easier to attack.
