Poker Strategy: Adjusting bluff frequencies to Villain and pool tendencies

Poker Strategy | estimated reading time
2024. May 07.
Today, we'll continue discussing the basics of bluffing. Now, we'll move towards exploits since the player pool differs from the theoretically optimal defending strategies in many ways. We'll examine some profitable spots where you can alter your bluffing strategy.
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Previously, we discussed that bluffing is a complementary part of the game. The driving factor is our value bets, and the bluffs follow them to complete a balanced range, incentivizing our opponents to call against our strong hands.

Since almost all players alter from the optimal strategy while defending, we can gain extra value by bluffing more in some spots and omitting bluffing entirely in others. This statement becomes even more accurate as the stakes get lower and lower. It would help if you studied your player pool to get the most accurate answers, but we've listed some common spots where, in 2024, players are massively unbalanced at small and low stakes.

Spots where pool alters

You don't need to be 100% accurate about frequencies and combos, but you must have a rough idea about how ranges should look like and what's optimal in a situation where you are contemplating altering your strategy. Understanding the origo and how much you want to modify your strategy is key. Otherwise, you just add noise and variance to your game.

You can start your adjustment preflop; still, in 2024, there are preflop leaks in your opponents' game. Since the player pool is under 3-bets and overfolds to 3-bets simultaneously, you should attack these mistakes pre-flop. Under 3-betting is especially true from the BB, so while you should fold more against these than GTO suggests, you can also adjust proactively and open wider, at least from late positions and SB, because you won't get punished as much.

Players are getting better and better not to overfold against 3-bets. Still, many of them fold 65-70%+ to this form of aggression. To your benefit, even if they tend to call the "right" frequencies, the lack of 4-bets (and mainly the bluffing part) allows us to 3-bet aggressively, even wider than the optimal or at least adding the full frequency of those cards that should mix in theory.

Let's see postflop play; one of the most striking mistakes is failing to check-raise the flop. C-betting wide works so well, even on boards favourable to the defender, solely because people don't know how much they could punish by check-raising these over-c-bettors. The pool probably check-raises around 9-10% on average, while in reality, it should be in the vicinity of 18-20% (or at least close to the double they do). This leads to the conclusion that, evidently, we should c-bet more in general; our bluffs perform better than they should by getting more folds, and our medium-strength hands realize more EQ by not facing as many raises.

Another typical spot we can attack with more bluffs is unprotected checkback ranges. The small stakes pool's ranges are flimsy when they check back on the flop or turn. It would be best if you elevated your bluffing frequencies in these cases. Usually, it's easy to find EQ-driven bluffs. However, you should look for these spots and attack with non-SD-type hands, as they will perform amazingly, while, in theory, they shouldn't bet or at least not with a high frequency. Usually, players learn to play flop c-betting strategies earlier since they are easier and simply because we all tend to learn linearly (starting from preflop, then flop, then turn and finally river). This leads to the conclusion that turn checkback ranges are even weaker than the ones on the flop. Look for them next time you face a spot like this, and attack them any size you wish!

Checking ranges are also weak when we are talking about the defenders. Most players probe turns (and rivers) heavily based on EQ. So their checking range will contain a bunch of air and low EQ hands like second, third and lower pairs. These hands simply cannot bear facing aggression, especially on multiple streets. That's why you should delay c-bet more often, again adding hands that you normally wouldn't bet (i.e., hands with very low EQ and SD values).

Blind versus blind play is a lot of fun; ranges are broad, allowing mistakes to underprotect, checking ranges and overbluffing other spots. Now, we'll highlight one type of mistake when SB checks twice in the hand. Let it be checking flop and turn, or c-betting, then checking turn and river, or after delayed c-betting, check the river. You must handle the spot carefully, as some players will realize their ranges are weak. Instead of adequately protecting their checking ranges, they will force themselves to call bad hands (explaining that it's top of their range), so you must recognize these Villains by looking at their stats or paying attention to SDs.

Other ways to alter

Finding excellent spots to bluff is crucial but not the only way to adjust your strategies to earn more. Another great method to bluff more is to table select wisely. Of course, you cannot do this in certain game types, like fast-fold games or on sites that auto-seat you. However, when you have the opportunity, look for weak players to play against. Indeed, you are table selecting to maximize your winrate, but if you add this layer to your selection, you can get some extra fold equity in many ways.

Look for opponents multi-tabling (preferably 6-8 tables at least); they will have less time to think and will respond more in a reactive, automatized way. Opponents with low aggression, low wtsd stat and few raises are more than welcome at your table. The more of a typical 0 EV player you have at the table, the better. Usually, their graf looks stuck at 0, the redline plummeting at a 45-degree angle.

Zero EV regular player
Zero EV regular player

Another great way to adjust your strategy and bluff more is to play with your sizings. This is true for both preflop and postflop plays.

When your opponents tendentiously overfold, you might not need huge sizings. Indeed, you should decrease your sizes and play wider ranges. A player who folds 70% to 3-bets out of position will likely be very inelastic to your sizing. This means that even if GTO suggest using a 2,5bb open from the BTN or a 3,5x 3-bet in position, you might get away with using min opens and 3x sizes as a 3-bet without the consequence of Villain adjusting her strategy to continue with a broader range. It seems like a very tiny win, but small edges add up at the end of the day.

We've discussed the topic of unprotected ranges above. You can extend your fold equity by using different sizes. Targeting specific parts of the ranges could lead to huge errors; therefore, usually, it's not advised. The main problem with targeting is that it focuses on parts of the range, which often adds only a tiny part of the whole, causing an error when you look at the whole picture. However, capped, unprotected ranges might be a good idea to target. In this case, you are aware of your opponent's entire range, and its majority contains weak hands, so you won't be misled.

In terms of sizing, you need to examine the texture and possible hands that Villain could call, in addition to her stats, which indicate how much she will fold compared to the optimal frequencies. It might be a good idea to introduce overbets to put extra pressure on your opponent. Always try to enlist most of the relevant factors to decide which size to choose; don't stick to a one-size-fits-all solution.

Summary

When you consider adjusting your bluffing frequencies to the player pool, it's crucial to have a basic understanding of the theoretically optimal play. If you don't know the origo, how do you know which way to alter your strategy and by how much? Today, we've listed many spots where low and small-stakes players still need help to play optimally. You can find unprotected checking ranges all over the game tree. The lack of aggression helps your bluffing part of your range to be more profitable solely because opponents overfold, thus generating more EV to your low-0 EQ hands. In terms of realizability, you can also get to SD more often or at least see all five community cards with low EQ hands, which is a huge win. Also, remember that you might find other ways to increase your bluffs' success (and frequency) by carefully choosing your bet sizes and your opponents.

Go out there, and good luck with testing out your new weapon!

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