#8 Exploitative Strategy and Adjustment
Today we take a peak into the exploitation world and how you should change your strategy when circumstances differ from the basics.
Why is adjusment important?
In our articles, we discussed situations with the assumption of 100bb effective stacks, and our primary approach was the theoretically optimal strategy. To understand the game, we must familiarize ourselves with basic concepts and strategies to deviate in certain situations accordingly. Yes, my fellow poker player, the best method will be to adjust to your opponent and take advantage of their mistakes, not to play perfectly from a GTO perspective. First, it's too complex to learn and almost impossible to execute for humans. Would you win with that play? For sure! But would you win the maximum possible with that approach? Not even close. It's designed to create ranges in a way that is non-exploitable and balanced to be protected.
In what ways can we adjust?
A general tip would be to use Villain's mistake to your advantage. If he is too passive, giving up in certain spots, then be aggressive in those situations. If he is too aggressive, be prepared for it by checking stronger ranges, trapping him more often, etc. There are several examples, but the basic concept is; to do the opposite, which means exploiting an extremity in one way or another.
Preflop examples
Let's take some examples of preflop when we can adjust our play to our opponent.
- 6-max game. It's folded to us on the BTN, and we open 2,5bb with
Q T . The Villain on the BB 3-bets to 13bb. You quickly check his stats and realize he is only 3-betting 7% BBvBTN instead of the 14% theoretically optimal. He is also raising on the bigger size. Considering these factors, you decide to fold, and he shows 
A Q . You'd be in big trouble if you called against a tighter range and bigger sizing. Most of your dominated hands should be folded since the most common scenario will be to hit a pair (or top pair), not a strong hand. Moreover, your whole stack will be at risk, and there is nothing you can do about it.
The conclusion of this example is that even in your preflop game, you can make better decisions if you have enough statistics from your opponent. The bigger their size, the narrower their range, so you should respond by tightening up. The opposite is always true; if they play wider or too aggressively, you should punish them by calling more, 3-4betting more, etc.
- 6-max game. It's folded to us on the SB, and we are dealt
6 4 . Clear open according to our charts, right? Well, what if I told you that the BB plays with only 35bb and is moderately aggressive? We decide to fold.
However, opening weak hands with very little showdown value and it is hard to realize their EQ (and win enough chips with nutted hands, compensating when we don't hit) could be the right play. The problem is that you have to assume that Villain highly overfolds preflop or postflop (or both), which is often untrue. The takeaway is that stack depth should significantly impact your strategy. You cannot stick to your base game if the circumstances change around you.
Postflop examples
- 6-max game. It's folded to the BTN, who opens 2,5bb, the SB folds, and we call from the BB with
5 3. The flop comes 7 4 4 , we check and Villain bets 1/3 pot. You might think you only have a gutshot, not even for the nut straight. It's safe to call here and see what happens. But if I tell you that Villain c-bets 82% on every board? This flop clearly favours BB in terms of nutted hands (think about who will have more 4x combos). So c-betting wide, perhaps with an entire range is a huge mistake. So we decide to check-raise to 3,5x and take down the pot. We had some EQ to the straight as well, but more importantly, we used our information to exploit Villain who was overly aggressive in an unfavoured spot. - 6-max game. It's folded to us on the CO, and we open 2,2bb with K T, only the BB calls, which makes the pot 4,9bb. The flop comes A 6 2 and the BB checks. What should you do? Well, this flop is not as great as it seems. The main problem is that the only strong hands you have and the BB does not; are AA, AK and AQ. While your range is almost double as wide as the BB. In a situation like this, you need to check back at least 50% of your range if not more. Hands that block the folding range have little to no showdown value/possibility to improve or fold out only worse holdings are clear candidates to check. What if I told you that you have statistics of the BB, who has regular statistics preflop, but you can see also that he folds 74% to c-bets in single raised pots? We go ahead and bet 1/3 pot with our hand and we take down the pot. He shows 5 2 , which he should definitely call. So our assumption that Villain overfolds was right, making our exploitive play profitable.
Summary
The more factors you take into consideration, the better decisions you can make. Do you need to know everything to make good decisions? Absolutely not! However, the more precise you go, the better outcome you'll have. Be careful to don't overestimate specific pieces of information. If you base your decision on statistics, have large samples that confirm your assumptions. Also, try to see the bigger picture and handle statistics with a salt of grain. Or better said, think about them as complementaries. One statistic number can be very misleading, but if you look at it concerning other stats, you can get the whole picture and make a better decision.
Another great way to take advantage is to play for a better deal than others (or choose a poker site which offers rake back, races, etc.). Make the most of every opportunity!
